Increase in Credit Card Defaults Seen in 4Q 2007

Earlier in the 2007 analysts were confounded that the credit card defaults were not higher when compared to the jump in mortgage default and foreclosure. We addressed that issue, with real people’s reaction to protecting their credit cards. Now credit card defaults are on the rise.

Lenders are now confronting rising defaults on the $920 billion that the Federal Reserve estimates Americans currently carry in credit-card debt. Delinquencies of 90 days or more (which lenders generally write off) rose 18% to $961 million in October from a year earlier at 17 trusts holding 45% of U.S. credit-card debt. Reported by an Associated Press analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

Many of the credit card companies are carefully monitoring the consumer’s card use and payment history. Concerned that by making the minimum payment on credit cards, the borrower would never pay down the balance. I remember the warning in 2005 of enforcing the increase in the minimum payment on credit cards. The ruling in 2003 was not actually enforced until 2005 after the reforms in bankruptcy protection.

Many lenders are attempting to maintain some semblance of profitability by raising interest rates, late fees, over limit fees, and transaction fees. As more consumers are faced with this significant increase in interest rates and fees they will be more inclined to abandon their credit cards altogether. Sad as it may seem, I expect much of the use to be curtailed and an increase in consumer bankruptcy filing in June or July.

Many credit card companies are also monitoring the use of their cards regarding expendable goods. It is hard to secure a debt when the card was used to purchase gasoline, food, and services. There is no recourse for the lender. There will probably be a shift in requiring full payment of card balances involving this type of purchase.

 

Increase in Credit Card Defaults Seen in 4Q 2007

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